Sunday marked 73 years since the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor that brought the U.S. into war in the Pacific.
The day after the attack, newspapers reported on the incident and assessed what might happen next. Writing on Dec. 8, 1941 in the Wall Street Journal, Eugene Duffield outlines the mobilization, which is mind-blowing for the mass of the economy it ensnared and, you might say, stimulated.
As Paul Krugman wrote in the Times in 2011, “World War II is the great natural experiment in the effects of large increases in government spending, and as such has always served as an important positive example for those of us who favor an activist approach to a depressed economy.”
Duffield’s story conveys the scope. Starting in graph five he writes:
This war of the whole world will make demands on the United States such as it has never met before. To defeat the Berlin-Rome-Tokyo axis will require:
Diversion of two-thirds to three-quarters of the industrial facilities of the country to munitions making. Curtailment of civilian consumption of industrial goods to levels below those experienced in the 1932-33 depression.
Expenditure of about half of the national income, or upward of about $30 billion annually, on war.
Sharp increase in taxes plus reliance on banks and savings institutions to absorb large blocks of government bonds in order to finance these record-breaking outlays.
Raising of armed forces which according to the joint army-navy board might reach a total over 10 million men.
Labor ‘registration’ to assure farms and factories of ample manpower if the huge armed force is raised.
Rationing of food if the diversion of manpower to military service and factories impairs food production.
Doubling of the merchant marine if half of the armed services are to be sent abroad to fight.
These are the rough outlines of the mobilization plan which America must follow if yesterday’s events prove to be but a step toward eventual involvement in war against Germany and all her satellites.
Of course, what’s also striking is Duffield’s delineating in detail the effort within 24 hours of the attack. Then again, his sources included officials at the so-called Supply, Priorities and Allocation Board, which President Roosevelt created that summer to coordinate defense production.
Duffield also cited a report by The Associated Press, which reported that Undersecretary of War Robert Patterson had called for production of munitions on a continuous basis. “All steps must be taken to increase the speed with which contracts are let and to speed up maximum production,” Patterson reportedly told the heads of the War Department’s procurement agency.