Twenty-five years from now China will be a developed nation and home to as many as a quarter of the world’s largest companies.
That’s the assessment from JPMorgan Chase chief executive Jamie Dimon, who surveys some of the geopolitical landscape in his annual letter to shareholders that was published on Wednesday.
The missive, in which Dimon discusses everything from the strength of JPMorgan’s balance sheet and to whether the U.S. needs big banks (safe to say Dimon disagrees with Bernie Sanders on the answer), also includes a review of some of the roughly 100 countries where the nation’s biggest bank does business.
Though Dimon is bullish on China’s prospects, he anticipates some rough patches as the world’s second-largest economy evolves. “Going forward, we do not expect China to enjoy the smooth, steady growth it has had over the past 20 years,” writes Dimon. “Reforming inefficient state-owned enterprises, developing healthy markets… with full transparency and creating a convertible currency where capital can more freely will not be easy.”
China’s economy grew 6.9% in 2015, which was robust compared with the rest of the world but the weakest for China in a quarter century. The effects of the slowdown have reverberated worldwide, especially in emerging markets that are home to many of Beijing’s largest trading partners.
Bank assets as a share of the economy (Source: JPMorgan Chase)
Dimon discusses Brazil, which is battling recession, inflation and political turmoil. Despite those difficulties, the country “has a strong judicial system, many well-run companies, impressive universities, peaceful neighbors and an enormous quantity of natural resources,” reports Dimon.
He also surveys the situation in Argentina, which he notes nearly a century ago had a gross domestic product per person larger than that of France. Though France has since tripled the size of its economy compared with Argentina, the latter “has a highly educated population, a new president who is making bold and intelligent moves, peaceful neighbors and, like Brazil, an abundance of natural resources,” according to Dimon.
Dimon devotes the final three of his 50 pages to a discussion of public policy, including the potential exit of Britain from the European Union. A so-called Brexit could harm the economies of both the U.K. and the EU, he says.
For his part, Dimon would like the EU to forge a political union to match the monetary one it has become. “The [EU] began with a collective resolve to establish a political union and peace after centuries of devastating wars and to create a common market that would result in a better economy and greater prosperity for its citizens,” Dimon writes. “These two goals still exist, and they are still worth striving for.