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John McCain offers a lesson on legislating

Like many people, I reacted with cynicism to the news Tuesday that John McCain would return to Washington to vote on whether a push by Republicans to dismantle the Affordable Care Act (ACA) could proceed.

I presumed that McCain, who is being treated for an insidious form of brain cancer, would sound off about the need for his party to work with Democrats to shore up the health law only to vote in the end to repeal it anyway.

After voting in favor of taking up the bill, McCain admonished his party to end their habit of “trying to find a way to win without help from across the aisle.”

Exactly what I expected from the Arizona Republican.

The thought that McCain, who is being treated by doctors at the Mayo Clinic Hospital in Phoenix, might vote for a measure that would could leave 16 million people uninsured, offended me.

But in the end, I was wrong. Around 1:30 a.m. Friday, after a full-court press that included a last-minute plea from the vice president, McCain voted against the repeal. He was joined by two other Republicans: Lisa Murkowski, of Alaska; and Susan Collins, of Maine. The White House threatened Murkowski with payback that included blocking nominees from Alaska to jobs at the Interior Department and halting expansion of drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

In exchange for his vote to keep the repeal going, McCain reportedly sought assurances from Speaker Paul Ryan that the House would use a measure passed by the Senate as the basis to negotiate between the chambers, rather than simply pass the Senate bill and send it to the president for signature. Whatever Ryan conveyed failed to assure McCain that a compromise measure would ensue.

McCain said later he’d like to see the ACA replaced “with a solution that increases competition, lowers costs, and improves care for the American people,” but that the so-called skinny repeal that he killed did none of those things.

He called on lawmakers to “return to the correct way of legislating and send the bill back to committee, hold hearings, receive input from both sides of aisle, heed the recommendations of nation’s governors, and produce a bill that finally delivers affordable health care for the American people.”

Writing in The New Yorker, Mark Singer said McCain “chose to vote with his soul – in defiance of the bottomless soullessness that, when the ultimate moment arrived, he rejected.”

John McCain long ago earned the status of war hero. But Friday on the floor of the Senate may have marked his finest moment.

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Trump unloads via Twitter, aka Saturday

On the day after Labor Day in 1973, Elizabeth Drew, a reporter for The New Yorker, told her editor she had “an intuition” that within a year the U.S. would change president and vice president.

“At the time, this was a seemingly outlandish thought, but I go a lot on instinct and I just sensed it,” Drew writes in the introduction to “Washington Journal: Reporting Watergate and Richard Nixon’s Downfall," her book about that time.

The Watergate scandal had not yet snared Nixon, but “there was already plenty of evidence that serious wrongdoing had taken place” in the administration, Drew writes.

Saturday also felt like a day when the country might have a new president within a year.

The morning began with Donald Trump unleashing a fusillade of tweets in which he said that presidents have “complete power” to pardon aides (and, perhaps, themselves) and complained about an “intelligence leak” that allowed the Washington Post to report that Attorney General Jeff Sessions discussed the presidential campaign with Russia’s ambassador last year.

He also blasted the “fake news,” despite sitting for an hour-long interview on Wednesday with The New York Times. “Look, I think he loves the press,” said Maggie Haberman, one the reporters who interviewed Trump.

The frenzy of social media followed a week in which Trump lashed out at Sessions for recusing himself from the Russia investigation and hinted that White House aides are looking for ways to discredit prosecutors working for Robert Mueller, the special counsel who is leading the investigation.

Mueller is reportedly examining a broad range of transactions involving Trump’s businesses.

According to a Gallup poll published Friday, Trump held a job approval of 38.8% in the three months that ended June 19. That’s 23 points below the historical norm and the lowest such rating in a comparable period in the 72 years that Gallup has assessed job approval. (Trump’s rating in the first three months of his presidency also set a new low.)

The discovery on Saturday afternoon of old tweets by Anthony Scaramucci show there was a time when the new White House communications director thought two of his boss' rivals might make better presidents than would Trump.

“Odd guy, so smart, no judgment,” Scaramucci tweeted in February 2012 about Newt Gingrich after Trump said he would endorse the former House speaker for president.

Two months earlier, Scaramucci praised Mitt Romney via Twitter for a decision to “stay out of the Trump spectacle.”

Scaramucci deleted both tweets.

About an hour later, he deleted a tweet from April 2012 in which he called Hillary Clinton “incredibly competent” and expressed hope she might run for president in 2016. Scaramucci also erased tweets of support for “strong gun control laws.”

Scaramucci owned his decision to delete the tweets. “Past views evolved & shouldn’t be a distraction,” he wrote. “I serve [the president’s] agenda & that’s all that matters.”

So much for principles.

Still, in 118 characters, the communications director showed more openness than Trump has since announcing his run for the presidency.

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Politics

Both the Democratic and Labour parties are struggling to win over working-class voters

The United Kingdom’s Labour Party and the Democratic Party in the United States share a problem, which is their struggle to win over working-class voters.

Despite adding 32 seats in Thursday’s general election, the Labour Party, led by Jeremy Corbyn, who espouses left-wing populism, lost working-class votes at the expense of the Conservatives, who gained such votes despite losing their parliamentary majority.

The higher the share of people with a university degree, the better Labour fared  – and the larger the swing to Labour from the Conservatives. Despite the election being seen by many as a disaster for the Conservatives, the party has gained working-class votes.

Is the Labour Party under Corbyn capable winning more than 40.3% of the vote, as it did on Thursday? And if not, what must Labour do to reclaim a majority? Dump Corbyn, centrists say. “We could have won this election if we had a half-decent leader, as [May has] imploded,” one anti-Corbyn Labour candidate told BuzzFeed News.

The challenge on this side

Democrats here in the U.S. confront a similar challenge. Donald Trump became president in part by winning significant support in the Midwest and Rust Belt among whites without a college education.

But the distance that Democrats find themselves from such voters may be farther than they think. Writing in the Times, Tom Edsall surveys the extent of Democratic losses among working-class voters, which, it happens, was not limited to whites.

As many as 9.2 million people who voted to re-elect Barack Obama voted for Trump, based on estimates cited by Edsall. Many of the counties that switched to Trump from Obama are concentrated in the Midwest and Rust Belt.

Amazingly for the party of Franklin Delano Roosevelt and Lyndon Johnson, “Obama-Trump voters were more likely to think more Democrats look out for the wealthy than look out for poor people,” Geoff Garin, a pollster whose firm conducted the surveys and focus groups, told Edsall.

Edsall quotes Stan Greenberg, a Democratic pollster, who wrote recently that “Democrats don’t have a ‘white working-class problem.’ They have a ‘working-class problem,’ which progressives have been reluctant to address honestly or boldly.” (In his latest column, Frank Bruni reports on Democrats’ difficulties connecting with voters in New York’s Hudson Valley.)

The data that Edsall summaries shows a pullback in support for Democrats among working-class voters of all races, including many turned off by the party’s support for trade agreements that voters perceive as costing jobs, as well as a perception of the party’s being out of touch with the economic stress of voters, particularly older ones, in small town and rural America.

“For all the harm he has done, continues to do and proposes to do, Trump has successfully forced Democrats to begin to examine the party’s neglected liabilities, the widespread resentment of its elites and the frail loyalty of its supporters,” Edsall writes.

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Obamacare repeal continues to confront obstacles

House Republicans on Thursday passed a bill to repeal the Affordable Care Act, but that doesn’t mean the law will be scrapped any time soon.

To win support of conservatives, the GOP leaders added provisions that allow states to gut benefits that insurers must provide and slash spending on Medicaid, which provides care for the needy. (If you’re wondering, the savings will fund a tax cut for people who earn more than $200,000 a year.)

Now the legislation moves to the Senate, where Republicans, who hold 52 seats, can only afford to lose one vote and where Democrats are united in their opposition to repeal.

The math doesn’t favor repeal along lines passed by the House. Among the GOP, Senators Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Rob Portman, Lindsey Graham, Lisa Murkowski, Cory Gardener, Shelly Moore Capito, Bill Cassidy and Susan Collins all have expressed concerns with the legislation that emerged from the other chamber.

“Although I will carefully review the legislation the House passed today, at this point, there seem to be more questions than answers about its consequences,” Collins said following the House vote.

Unlike House Republicans, senators likely will wait for the Congressional Budget Office to assess what the bill – or any legislation for that matter – will do. When CBO last scored the legislation, it found that repeal of Obamacare would cause 24 million Americans to lose their health insurance over the next decade. Any estimate of the revised legislation that’s remotely close will leave Republicans concerned about the effect of repealing Obamacare on their prospects for re-election.

Elements of the House bill that likely will raise Republican objections in the Senate include the loss of coverage caused by the rollback of Medicaid and concerns that the House did not go far enough to preserve coverage for people with preexisting conditions.

But efforts to restore those protections in the Senate could jeopardize support from conservatives. Sen. John Cornyn, the Senate’s number two Republican, conceded as much following the House vote. “There is no timeline,” he told reporters. “When we get 51 senators, we’ll vote.”

Congress can send only one version of a bill to the president for his signature. So even if the Senate also passes a bill, congressional Republicans almost certainly will be left to negotiate among themselves. That means the Republican leadership in both chambers would appoint lawmakers to a conference committee, which would meet to reconcile the two versions. As the Congressional Research Service explains:

For a conference to reach agreement, a majority of the House conferees and a majority of the Senate conferees must sign the conference report. Once reported, the conference report must be approved by both chambers. Conference reports are privileged and debatable in both the House and Senate, but they may not be amended.

If both chambers approve the conference report, the legislation would be sent to the president for his signature. But for now hurdles remain. “This bill is going nowhere fast in the United States Senate,” Chuck Schumer, the chamber’s top Democrat, said on Wednesday.

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To learn how to take on Trump, study Ted Kennedy

In the midterm elections of 1994, Republicans swept both houses of Congress in a victory that ended 40 years of Democratic control of the House of Representatives. The GOP touted as its charter a “Contract with America,” a 10-point plan that called for, among other things, a balanced budget, welfare reform, a pullback on military support for U.N. peacekeeping, a 50% cut in tax on capital gains, and term limits for representatives and senators.

Newt Gingrich, the GOP leader and co-author of the contract, pronounced the results a revolution. “I think I am a transformational figure,” Gingrich said before the election. “I think I am trying to effect a change so large that the people who would be hurt by the change, the liberal Democratic machine, have a natural reaction – which gets wearying.”

And yet with the exception of a reform of welfare that became law two years later, the revolution failed to achieve the reordering of society that Gingrich envisioned. For that, credit goes to an opposition led by Sen. Ted Kennedy, who countered Republicans and held Bill Clinton, who as president reacted to the GOP sweep with a strategy of accommodation, in check.

I was reminded of all of this recently while reading a review by Jeff Madrick of “Lion of the Senate: When Ted Kennedy Rallied the Democrats in a GOP Congress,” a book by former Kennedy staffers Nick Littlefield and David Nexon. I plan to read it when I return to New York (there’s a copy on the shelf in the local branch of the public library), in part because Kennedy demonstrated how to curb the excesses of a majority. That may make the book a must-read for anyone who wonders how to function in a time of Trump.

So what explained Kennedy’s effectiveness?

He was tireless, according to Madrick (citing Littlefield and Nexon), who notes the intensity of preparation that the senator brought to issues. “He gathered groups of analysts and academics to debate the issues before he presented a new bill or had a meeting with the president, an opposition leader, or his fellow Democrats,” Madrick writes.

The congressional scholar Norm Ornstein, in his own review of Littlefield’s and Nexon’s book, recalls Kennedy this way:

Kennedy was a true workhorse who left the office every day with a huge, thick briefcase filled with bills and staff memos, and returned the next morning with all of them heavily annotated. He was genuinely passionate about social justice and indefatigable in trying to achieve results. He was a liberal ideologue but a supreme pragmatist, always seeking support across party lines and always willing to take a half, quarter or tenth of a loaf if that was necessary. He mastered the rules and norms of the Senate enough to use them to advantage in achieving his goals.

The senator knew how to legislate, which as Madrick explains, required the ability to keep your friends close and your enemies closer. According to Madrick:

Kennedy worked constantly, and if he had to make an intense effort to win over a senatorial colleague he did so. Sometimes he sang a song in a meeting, or he would memorize a thousand-word poem, as he did to win approval for federal funds to renovate the Longfellow House in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Mostly, he was a purposeful presence on the Senate floor or in the cloakroom, or he was visiting the offices of senators to form voting alliances to support his programs or defeat those of Republicans or right-wing Democrats.

Compared with Clinton, whose tendency was to triangulate, Kennedy clung to his convictions. Madrick cites a speech by Kennedy on Jan. 11, 1995 at the National Press Club, as a call to arms by Kennedy to Democrats intimidated by the Republican landslide.

Though Madrick quotes form the speech, I recommend watching it. Kennedy, addressing a capital that is in the thrall of a GOP takeover, startles you by beginning seemingly in medias res:

I come here as a Democrat. I reject such qualifiers as New Democrat or Old Democrat or neo-Democrat. I am committed to the enduring principles of the Democratic Party, and I am proud of its great tradition of service to the people who are the heart and strength of this nation: working families and the middle class.

Though Republicans presented their proposals as the product of a revolution, the contract, as Madrick notes, “boiled down to major tax cuts for the wealthy, paid for by sharply cutting social programs, including Medicare benefits, and reducing federal government expenditures on education by up to 25 percent, with the announced goal of balancing the budget.”

With Kennedy in opposition, Democrats halted most of the Gingrich revolution, which would end four years later with Republicans losing seats and Gingrich resigning as speaker of the House (and his seat). In 1996, Kennedy helped pass an increase in the minimum wage. A year later, he co-sponsored legislation that expanded health insurance coverage for children.

Ornstein recalls the shift that Kennedy helped bring about. “The political process went from one where Gingrich and his troops were on their way to establishing a parallel presidency, seizing control of the initiative and the agenda immediately after the 104th Congress convened, to one where they were back on their heels after the disastrous government shutdowns and threats over the debt ceiling at the end of 1995 and the beginning of 1996, to a period of bipartisan legislating that lasted into 1997 before collapsing into the morass of impeachment politics,” Ornstein writes.