Tag: Mets

The Mets got their man on their terms.

The National League champions announced late Friday they had reached a deal with Yoenis Cespedes following an offseason in which it appeared the center fielder might sign elsewhere.

The pact calls for the Mets to pay Cespedes $75 million over three years, including $27.5 million for the first year, after which he can opt out.

https://twitter.com/MLB/status/691086807333613569/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

That means Cespedes, 30, can test free agency again next winter, and that the Mets will have a center fielder who hit 35 home runs last season and batted .328 with runners on base.

On paper at least, the pact vaults the Mets back to the top of the league. In addition to Cespedes, the Mets added second baseman Neil Walker, who hit 16 home runs last season while batting .269 for the Pirates, to go with a starting rotation that may be the best in baseball.

Re-signing Cespedes also seems to validate the Mets’ approach this offseason.

Earlier this month, general manager Sandy Alderson dismissed “as populism involving Cespedes” suggestions that the Mets were not spending enough to win another championship.

Cespedes reportedly sought a deal for six or seven years that would pay him about $22 million a year, which the Mets refused. As recently as Thursday the Nationals were said to be offering him a pact worth $100 million over five years that also contained an opt-out clause.

So why did Cespedes accept the Mets’ offer? “Perhaps he also figures that if an opt-out from the Nationals would enable him to become a free agent after say, two years, he might as well just accept the shorter deal from the Mets,” Ken Rosenthal at Fox Sports speculated on Thursday.

Indeed. By the end of next season, Cespedes will be 31 years old, or three years past prime for a position player, as measured by wins above replacement (WAR), which tries to sum up a player’s contribution to his team in one statistic.

Cespedes’ WAR with the Mets last season was 2.3, compared with 4.0 a year earlier in Detroit and 3.9 in 2012, his first season in the league, with Oakland. Position players tend to peak between the ages of 26 and 28, according to an analysis last year by Alex Speier at The Boston Globe. As Speier wrote:

“Meanwhile, after turning 30, players experience a clear and steady decline in the likelihood that they’ll be productive offensive contributors, with 33-year-old players delivering 2.0 WAR with less than half the frequency of players 26-29. The picture gets progressively uglier from there.”

The deal also highlights the significance of an opt-out clause, a provision that allows a player to walk away from the pact and releases the team from its promise to pay him. Though such clauses would seem to benefit players, they benefit teams, too.

“The seasons at the end of a contract that a player would abandon are precisely the years in which he expects to be paid more than he is worth,” the Economist concluded recently in an analysis of contracts that are known to contain opt-outs.

Based on the data, Cespedes had no reason to delay his opt-out another year. Of course, the Mets know that too, which may explain why the prospect of their rival signing Cespedes failed to rattle them.

Ten days ago, when it appeared that Cespedes might sign elsewhere, Mets captain David Wright told The New York Post that he has learned to trust Alderson.

“I don’t know what the situation is with Cespedes and the Mets, but I do know that Sandy has earned the right to make these type of decisions,” Wright said.

Eleven Sundays from now the Mets open their season at Kansas City. But the hot stove league has reached its midpoint.

The Mets are investing to win, according to general manager Sandy Alderson, who told reporters recently that the team is on track to boost its payroll to as high as $120 million, or about $35 million more than two years ago.

Alderson dismissed as “populism involving Cespedes” the idea that the team is failing to spend enough to compete for the pennant. That was a reference to outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, whom the team shows little interest in signing.

“We know Cespedes was instrumental in getting us to the postseason,” Alderson said. “But I think along the way we learned a few things about ourselves and the team.”

I'm going to win Powerball on Wednesday. And then I'LL sign Cespedes.

— Metstradamus (@Metstradamus) January 10, 2016

One of those lessons may be that it’s better to first see how the team comes together on field and then add players as you go. Think back to June, when the Mets were at the bottom of the league in runs scored. The Mets needed a big bat, which Cespedes, who hit .328 last season with runners on base, brought.

But in the postseason, Cespedes hit just .232 with runners on base, which may explain the Mets’ reluctance to open their wallet for the outfielder, who reportedly is seeking a seven-year deal for about $25 million a season.

A similar phenomenon may have led the Mets to part ways with second baseman Daniel Murphy, who in December signed a three-year, $37.5 million contract with the Nationals.

Despite homering five times in the Mets’ win over the Dodgers in the NL Division Series, Murphy committed an error in the eighth inning of Game 4 of the World Series that allowed the Royals to tie the game, which they later won.

The Royals also silenced Murphy’s bat. After hitting seven homers in the playoffs, Murphy hit zero in the series. The Royals varied the pitches that Murphy faced, with fewer fastballs and more pitches up and away.

So why are Mets fans freaking out? Because eight National League rivals each have shelled out more for free agents this offseason. Of course, much of the outlay was for pitching, of which the Mets have a bullpen full. (“The Mets have the best rotation in baseball now, and there really isn’t a close second,” writes ESPN’s Buster Olney.)

It didn’t help that on the same day Alderson addressed the media the Giants announced the signing of center fielder Denard Span. But the Mets don’t need Span, who led the league in hits two years ago but who missed nearly two-thirds of last season with the Nationals because of injuries, in the leadoff spot.

Nor does it help that Paul DePodesta, the analytics whiz who oversaw player development for the Mets, left the team recently to take over as chief strategy officer for the NFL Cleveland Browns. Still, one has to imagine that DePodesta influenced Alderson’s thinking about both Cespedes and Murphy.

Meanwhile, Cespedes remains a free agent. Which means the Mets may yet offer him a deal, albeit one for two years.

We learned on Monday that the Mets have scouted Kieran Powell, a cricket batsman from the West Indies. The Mets, one of 11 teams to have watched Powell work out, reportedly have encouraged him to pursue center field.